How to predict success? Success is predictable on many different fronts. There are two trains of thought. One is the amateur, the other is the professional. Now, this is a concept that is not unique. In fact, people like Steven Pressfield have written about this in great detail in his book “The War of Art,” and I recommend checking it out.

What resonates for me in terms of the predictability of success are several factors, not just one. When you think about success, people often think about leaders, they think about natural-born talent, they think about luck. But when you really break it down, success is always about being prepared. There’s a saying that says, luck favors the prepared, or the harder I work, the luckier I get. And there’s serious truth in that, where probability starts to favor you with activity.

Let’s look at consistency. When you are consistent, when you’re developing that muscle, and you’re doing the same thing every day, that’s when the magic happens (assuming you’re taking the correct steps and not just doing things that are a waste of your time). There is a roadmap where that consistent behavior, done in the right way – effectively, starts to produce real results.

The Amateur Mindset

The amateur shows up when they feel like it. They might be talented, sure, but their approach is random. They’ll go hard for a week, then disappear for a month. I’ve seen this in every field I’ve worked in – whether it was finance, healthcare, or marketing. Look at professional sports as an example. You’ll find many players playing basketball in a local YMCA or the blacktops of the city streets who possess NBA level talent. Or so it appears that way to the untrained eye. However, the level of skill and commitment it takes to play in the NBA is what makes you a pro.

Amateurs make excuses. “I’m not feeling creative today.” “The timing isn’t right.” “I’ll start tomorrow.” They treat their craft as optional, something they can pick up and put down depending on their mood.

I’m not judging – I’ve been that amateur at different times. When I was promoting nightclubs, I’d sometimes coast on natural charisma rather than putting in the systematic work. The results were what you’d expect: inconsistent. The same goes for my writing career. Sometimes, I treat it as casual because it’s not my full-time work. But then I buckle down and give it the same respect and professionalism as I do with my career.

The Professional Approach

The professional doesn’t care if they feel inspired. They show up anyway. Rain or shine, good mood or bad, they’re there doing the work. It’s not about motivation – it’s about discipline.

John C. Maxwell talks about this in his book on leadership. He says leadership isn’t developed in a day; it’s developed daily through consistent habits. The same applies to any skill or pursuit. Show up day after day doing the mundane and not suffering from boredom but rather enjoying the pursuit of the routine to get to your achieved goal. 

The Quantum Leap

Those results create what I call that quantum leap, that jump. Now, when it comes to quantum leap, that’s a concept that I’ve thought about for quite some time. And you do see that quantum leap, or exponential growth when you put 10,000 hours into something.

Malcolm Gladwell popularized this idea, but it’s not just about clocking hours. It’s about deliberate practice – focused effort aimed at improvement. An amateur might practice the same mistakes for 10,000 hours. A professional constantly refines their approach.

What’s crazy is how this quantum leap looks like overnight success to outsiders. I’ve witnessed colleagues suddenly “breakthrough” after years of consistent effort. From the outside, it looks like they got lucky. From the inside, I saw the thousands of small actions that created that “lucky” moment.

Making Success Predictable for You

These are some thoughts that I wanted to share as I put together concepts that are easily digestible. If people understood the strength of consistency, showing up, and doing things the right way, they would see improvements in many aspects of their lives.

Want to predict your success? Look at your daily habits. Are you approaching your work like an amateur or a professional?

Amateurs wait for the perfect conditions. Professionals create their own weather.

Amateurs focus on inspiration. Professionals focus on implementation.

Amateurs quit when it gets hard. Professionals know that’s when the real growth begins.

Success isn’t random – it’s the predictable outcome of professional habits applied consistently over time. The quantum leap is coming for those who put in the work. The question is, will you still be moving in that path when the opportunity comes?